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Thailand New Year tourism revenue forecast 2026
Thailand’s New Year Tourism Revenue Likely to Dip in 2026 Holiday
Thailand’s tourism sector is anticipating a drop in revenue during the New Year 2026 holiday period, driven mainly by weaker spending from international visitors. Despite this, strong domestic travel and local celebrations are expected to provide some support.
Forecast: Softer Foreign Demand but Strong Local Travel
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) expects total tourism revenue from late December 2025 through early January 2026 to reach 70.1–76.5 billion baht — a 2–9% decrease compared with the same period last year. Foreign visitor revenue is expected to fall by 4–15%, mainly due to fewer arrivals from nearby Asian markets.
🛫 International Visitor Trends
Between Dec 20, 2025, and Jan 1, 2026, TAT estimates 1.4–1.5 million foreign arrivals, down 6–12% year-on-year. The drop is linked to ongoing floods in southern Thailand and border tensions, which have dampened confidence among travellers from markets that are sensitive to safety and environmental concerns.
Despite this, some countries such as China, Malaysia, and South Korea are still expected to be among the top contributors to international visitor numbers.
🚗 Domestic Tourism On the Rise
Domestic travel remains a bright spot for Thailand this holiday season. During the extended New Year period from Dec 31, 2025, to Jan 4, 2026, around 4.96 million local trips are forecast — up 7% from the prior year. This increase is expected to generate about 18.5 billion baht, also a 7% rise.
Cooler weather and festive celebrations across the country — including special events and local countdown activities — are boosting demand from Thai travellers.
What This Means for Travel Enthusiasts
✈️ For International Tourists
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Book early: Reduced confidence among international travellers could affect last-minute plans.
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Check weather and travel advisories, especially for southern destinations affected by flooding.
🇹🇭 For Domestic Travellers
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Popular cities such as Bangkok, Phuket, and Chiang Mai expect higher hotel occupancy during the New Year period.
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Regional celebrations are also spreading New Year travel across multiple provinces.
Broader Tourism Outlook for Thailand
This projected decline in peak holiday revenue aligns with broader challenges facing Thailand’s tourism industry, like shifting travel patterns and the impact of external factors such as weather and regional geopolitics.
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